May 21, 2024

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Sports Arbitrage – Tennis Betting Tips

Sports arbitraging is the only way to make sure a specific bet wins. With sports arbitraging it’s 100{c34c06f77d52afff33578e93b7591d6bfac789ab9e1d902f9c4fe14f0d14bf4a} that the bets you place will yield you profit. How so? We’ll get to that.

Sports Arbitrage Introduction

Sports arbitraging is the act of exploiting the difference in odds at the different bookmakers. Bookmakers don’t always use the same odds for the same matches. In fact they rarely use the same odds as other bookmakers. For instance let’s look at the upcoming match with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer:

Bet365 odds: Novak Djokovic 2.87 and Roger Federer 1.40
Williamhill odds: Novak Djokovic 2.75 and Roger Federer 1.40

As you can see, the different bookmakers don’t use the same odds. This is what makes arbitraging possible.

How Exactly Does Sports Arbitraging Work?

We’re going to focus on betting on tennis in this article, but you can use the sports arbitrage betting system for any sport you like.

Arbitraging has been known to man for a long time. Banks have done it with the difference in currency for a very long time. The act of sports arbitraging is relatively new. What we essentially do is cover all the possible outcomes of a specific event. If it was a game of soccer we’d cover team A, team B, and the draw. In tennis we simply cover player A and B, since there’s no draw in tennis we do not have to worry about it. This is why tennis is such an easy sport to arbitrage (with only two outcomes).

Covering All Outcomes Yields a Loss..?

Well, yes. If you were to place the bets at the same bookmaker it would yield a loss. However, remember we talked about bookmakers use different odds? That’s where the ‘loop-hole’, if you will, is.

First let’s look at what would happen if we’d cover both outcomes at the same bookmaker (in this case Bet365).

We place $100 on Federer at odds of 1.40 and $48.78 on Djokovic at odds of 2.87 (explaining why I choose these different sizes of bets in a minute). The possible outcomes of the tennis match:

If Djokovic wins we receive $140 while losing the $100.
If Federer wins we receive $140 while losing the $48.

If Djokovic wins we end up with a loss of ($140 – $48.78 – $100 = -$8.78) $8.78.
If Federer wins we end up with a loss of ($140 – $100 – $48.78 = -$8.78) $8.78.

As you can see, no matter the outcome we always end up losing $8. Can we turn this around? Of course we can. We simply place the different bets at two different bookmakers. Let’s have a look at another bookmaker.

Odds for Djokovic at 2.58 and odds on Federer at 1.60. What we do now is cross bet at these two bookmakers. We obviously choose to bet so that we get the highest combined odds:

We bet $100 on Federer at odds of 1.60 and we place $55.75 on Djokovic at odds of 2.87 (will explain bet sizes later). Let’s look at the results:

If Djokovic wins we receive $160 while losing the $100.
If Federer wins we receive $160 while losing the $55.75.

If Djokovic wins we end up with a net gain of ($160 – $55.75 – $100 = $4.25) $4.25.
If Federer wins we end up with a net gain of ($160 – $100 – $55.75 = $4.25) $4.25.

No matter the outcomes we will always be winning $4. This might not seem as much, but keep in mind that it’s scalable. You could for example place $200 on Federer and $111.5 on Djokovic to double your profit. You could even place $1000 on Federer and $557.49 on Djokovic for a guaranteed $42.51 profit. It might not seem as much, but if you only placed a few of these bets a day, you could easily quite your day time job.

Before we look at the size of the bets we place on these tennis matches, we’re going to have a look at how to determine whether or not it’s possible to arbitrage a bet.

You simply put the odds through the formula:

odds1(power -1) + odds2(power -1). Whenever this yields a result lower than 1, you’ll be able to place an arbitrage bet. As an example let’s look at the bet above:

1.60(power -1) + 2.87(power -1) = 0.9734. Thus we can place an arbitrage bet.

Now let’s determine the size of the bets we want to place on the specific tennis matches. This is done with a simple formula. If you wish to place a stake of s1 on outcome 1, you need to place:

s2 = s1 * o1 / o2; on outcome two.

Let’s look at our example again. We place $100 on outcome 1 at odds of 1.60. On outcome two we want to place:

s2 = $100 * 1.60 / 2.87 = $55.75

Simple and elegant.

If you want to be making a living betting on tennis or any other sports for that matter, sports arbitraging is one of the best ways to go.